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Costco Wholesale Corporation
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Strong business, valuation above the sector
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3 of 5 met · composite in line with peers
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Stable quality
Profitability
3/4
Debt & liquidity
3/3
Efficiency
1/2
Revenue growth at COST runs +262% above the sector median of 2.3%, and FCF grew +511% above the sector median — both well into the top quartile for Consumer Staples. The balance sheet is equally clean: Debt/EBITDA of 0.4× sits -81% below the sector median of 2.4×, and the F-Score of 7/9 reflects stable financial health across profitability, liquidity, and efficiency. The price paid for that quality, however, is steep — P/B of 14.4× runs +162% above the sector median of 5.5×, and FCF yield of 2.1% trails the sector median of 4.7% by -55%, leaving little margin in the current price. Consensus and the realized three-year EPS CAGR of {{value:eps_cagr_3y}} are broadly aligned, yet the forward PEG reads as stretched — the market is pricing in growth that the track record supports only partially, and the last quarterly EPS came in just below consensus.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Colgate-Palmolive | 5/9 | 1 603% |
Quarter-by-quarter classification · a retrospective read by the current logic · not a price forecast
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. The method did not see these quarters in real time; this is the current logic applied to past reports.
The market prices in earnings growth; analyst sentiment is steady; has not always beaten consensus.
Price against next year's expected earnings. The forward P/E already carries analyst optimism — read it alongside the “Versus consensus” line.
A forward P/E below the current one means the market expects earnings to grow; above it, to fall. The historical growth is realized figures from SEC filings, not a forecast.
The three-month change in the share of positive analyst ratings. This is sentiment, not an earnings-estimate revision, and not a call to act.
When Costco reports on 2026-09-24, track revenue growth year over year against the current 2.25% sector median pace and check whether FCF growth — running at 6.1× the sector median — holds at scale. A slip in either figure would test whether the premium valuation is still supported by the underlying cash generation.
Pull Costco's latest 10-K on SEC EDGAR and focus on management's discussion of membership fee trends and margin structure, given the FCF yield of 4.66% sits 55% below the sector median. The risk factors section will clarify how sensitive that yield is to cost inflation or membership renewal rates.
From the same-sector table in section 06, pick two or three companies yourself and line up one metric — P/B or FCF yield are natural choices given Costco's P/B of 5.50× against the sector median. No single name in that table is ranked above another; the goal is to place Costco's valuation in its peer context on your own terms.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: -35%+93%-2%+18%
Over 4 years: 0.670.530.500.45
Over 4 years: +16%+7%+5%+8%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 6 of 8 recent quarters — the company clears estimates regularly (consensus is often set conservatively).
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| +1% |
| 16% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 7/9 | 31% | +8% | 4% |
| GIS | General Mills | 5/9 | -1% | -5% | 5% |
| HSY | Hershey | 4/9 | 19% | +4% | 12% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark | 4/9 | 173% | -2% | 14% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | 6/9 | 46% | +2% | 29% |
| KR | Kroger | 6/9 | 14% | +0% | 1% |
| MDLZ | Mondelez | 6/9 | 9% | +6% | 9% |
| MO | Altria | 6/9 | — | -3% | 43% |
| PEP | PepsiCo | 5/9 | 43% | +2% | 12% |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | 6/9 | 30% | +3% | 23% |
| PM | Philip Morris | 7/9 | — | +7% | 37% |
| SYY | Sysco | 7/9 | 78% | +4% | 4% |
| TGT | Target | 6/9 | 24% | -2% | 5% |
| WMT | Walmart | 7/9 | 23% | +5% | 4% |
A sample of 15 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
A simplified retrospective read: no analyst forecast (not available historically); the source is the annual report as of the date, so neighbouring quarters can rest on the same data. Quarters with the same classification in a row are merged into one row — each row is one change in the read, not a separate quarter. One ticker is an illustration of the classification logic, not statistics. How we calculate →
The last few quarters are recent context, not a fixed rate. Consensus for near quarters is set low, so companies clear it routinely; over long horizons the forecasts run the other way, too high.
A description of what the market and analysts expect. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. Analyst forecasts run systematically optimistic over long horizons — read them with that discount.