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Mastercard Incorporated
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Strong business, valuation above the sector
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3 of 5 met · composite in line with peers
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Stable quality
2 signals unavailable
Profitability
4/4
Debt & liquidity
2/3
Efficiency
1/2
Capital efficiency at MA runs well ahead of the sector: ROE sits +1,306% above the sector median 15.0%, and ROIC of 98.7% is +222% above its median — numbers that reflect a payments network where incremental volume costs little to process. Revenue grew 16.4% year over year, outpacing the sector median 7.9% by +107%, and the F-Score of 7/9 signals stable underlying quality. The price paid for that quality is high: a P/E of 31.9× runs +86% above the sector median 17.2×, placing valuation in the bottom quartile of the sector. The forward picture is mixed — consensus is labeled mixed against the realized record, though SEC filings show strong three-year EPS growth; the market models continued expansion, but analyst forecasts carry a well-documented optimistic tilt of roughly 10% over long horizons. The composite of 54/100 reflects that tension between a top-quartile business and a stretched price.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | American Express | 4/9 | 34% |
Quarter-by-quarter classification · a retrospective read by the current logic · not a price forecast
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. The method did not see these quarters in real time; this is the current logic applied to past reports.
A simplified retrospective read: no analyst forecast (not available historically); the source is the annual report as of the date, so neighbouring quarters can rest on the same data. Quarters with the same classification in a row are merged into one row — each row is one change in the read, not a separate quarter. One ticker is an illustration of the classification logic, not statistics. How we calculate →
The market prices in earnings growth; analyst sentiment is steady; has mostly beaten consensus.
Price against next year's expected earnings. The forward P/E already carries analyst optimism — read it alongside the “Versus consensus” line.
A forward P/E below the current one means the market expects earnings to grow; above it, to fall. The historical growth is realized figures from SEC filings, not a forecast.
The three-month change in the share of positive analyst ratings. This is sentiment, not an earnings-estimate revision, and not a call to act.
When Mastercard reports on 2026-10-28, track revenue growth year over year against the current 7.94% pace and check whether ROIC holds above 30%. A softening in net revenue or a dip in profitability signals would test whether the premium P/E of 17.2× — 86% above the sector median — remains justified.
On SEC EDGAR, open Mastercard's most recent 10-K and focus on the management discussion around network fees, cross-border volume, and regulatory exposure. With ROE running 14.1× above the sector median, understanding what sustains that figure — and what could compress it — is the core due-diligence task.
Pick two or three companies from the same-sector table in section 06 and line up one metric — P/E, ROIC, or revenue growth — against Mastercard's figures. The table is alphabetical with no ranking, so the selection and the weighting of each metric is yours to decide based on your own criteria.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: +19%+8%+23%+20%
Over 4 years: 1.060.971.060.91
Over 4 years: +18%+13%+12%+16%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 8 of 8 recent quarters — the company clears estimates regularly (consensus is often set conservatively).
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| +6% |
| — |
| BAC | Bank of America | 5/9 | 10% | +7% | — |
| BLK | BlackRock | 3/9 | 11% | +19% | 29% |
| C | Citigroup | 3/9 | 7% | +6% | — |
| CB | Chubb | 6/9 | 15% | +7% | — |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | 5/9 | 14% | +9% | — |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 3/9 | 16% | +3% | — |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 7/9 | 210% | +16% | 58% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 3/9 | 16% | +14% | — |
| PGR | Progressive | 6/9 | 40% | +16% | — |
| SCHW | Charles Schwab | 5/9 | 18% | +22% | — |
| SPGI | S&P Global | 7/9 | 14% | +8% | 42% |
| USB | U.S. Bancorp | 7/9 | 12% | +4% | — |
| V | Visa | 5/9 | 64% | +11% | 60% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | 3/9 | 12% | +2% | — |
A sample of 15 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
The last few quarters are recent context, not a fixed rate. Consensus for near quarters is set low, so companies clear it routinely; over long horizons the forecasts run the other way, too high.
A description of what the market and analysts expect. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. Analyst forecasts run systematically optimistic over long horizons — read them with that discount.