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Progressive Corp.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Strong business, analysts more pessimistic than the record
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4 of 5 met · composite above the peer average
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Stable quality
2 signals unavailable
Profitability
4/4
Debt & liquidity
2/3
Efficiency
0/2
Revenue growth at PGR has outpaced the Financials sector median by +106%, and ROE of 40.4% runs +170% above the sector median — the profitability signal is hard to dismiss. The F-Score of 6/9 reflects that strength, though the efficiency sub-score flags that asset turnover and margin trends have not kept pace with the top-line. On valuation, the picture splits: the P/E of 10.7× sits -39% below the sector median of 17.4×, and EV/EBITDA of 7.1× is -57% below its median of 16.7×, yet P/B of 4.1× runs +43% above the sector median of 2.9×. The forward axis adds a wrinkle: the realized three-year EPS CAGR per SEC filings of {{value:eps_cagr_3y}} is strong, yet the beat rate over eight quarters has been weak — consensus has tended to overshoot what PGR actually delivers each quarter, running counter to the usual optimism bias.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | American Express | 4/9 | 34% |
Quarter-by-quarter classification · a retrospective read by the current logic · not a price forecast
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. The method did not see these quarters in real time; this is the current logic applied to past reports.
When Progressive reports on 2026-11-02, track net premiums written year over year and combined ratio — the two metrics most likely to explain whether the current P/E of 17.4× holds up. The F-Score's perfect 4/4 profitability block suggests earnings quality is intact, but the 0/2 efficiency score means watch for any slippage in asset turnover or margin trends.
Pull Progressive's most recent annual report and focus on management's discussion of catastrophe loss exposure and reserve adequacy — both directly affect the FCF yield of 4.56% that sits 2.8× above the sector median. The P/B of 2.87×, running 43% above the sector median, warrants a close read of how book value is being built or consumed.
Pick two or three companies from the alphabetical financials table in section 06 and line up one metric — EV/EBITDA, P/B, or FCF yield — against Progressive's figures of 16.7×, 2.87×, and 4.56% respectively. No single name in that table carries a ranking, so the exercise is about placing Progressive's valuation profile in context rather than identifying a winner.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: -13%+58%+43%+16%
Over 4 years: 0.000.000.000.00
Over 4 years: +4%+25%+21%+16%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 5 of 8 recent quarters — a mixed record.
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| +6% |
| — |
| BAC | Bank of America | 5/9 | 10% | +7% | — |
| BLK | BlackRock | 3/9 | 11% | +19% | 29% |
| C | Citigroup | 3/9 | 7% | +6% | — |
| CB | Chubb | 6/9 | 15% | +7% | — |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | 5/9 | 14% | +9% | — |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 3/9 | 16% | +3% | — |
| MA | Mastercard | 7/9 | 210% | +16% | 58% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 3/9 | 16% | +14% | — |
| PGR | Progressive Corp. | 6/9 | 40% | +16% | — |
| SCHW | Charles Schwab | 5/9 | 18% | +22% | — |
| SPGI | S&P Global | 7/9 | 14% | +8% | 42% |
| USB | U.S. Bancorp | 7/9 | 12% | +4% | — |
| V | Visa | 5/9 | 64% | +11% | 60% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | 3/9 | 12% | +2% | — |
A sample of 15 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
A simplified retrospective read: no analyst forecast (not available historically); the source is the annual report as of the date, so neighbouring quarters can rest on the same data. Quarters with the same classification in a row are merged into one row — each row is one change in the read, not a separate quarter. One ticker is an illustration of the classification logic, not statistics. How we calculate →