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Tesla, Inc.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Weak signals across every dimension
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1 of 5 met · composite below the peer average
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Mixed signals
Profitability
3/4
Debt & liquidity
1/3
Efficiency
1/2
Revenue grew just -2.9% year over year, trailing the sector median of 4.0% by -173% — a gap that sits at the core of the valuation tension here. EV/EBITDA of 138.7× runs +584% above the sector median of 20.3×, pricing in a growth trajectory the recent record has not delivered. The F-Score of 5/9 reflects mixed signals: the current ratio stands +95% above the sector median, and FCF grew 60.9% year over year, but efficiency and leverage sub-scores are weak. Consensus models a sharp earnings recovery; the realized three-year EPS CAGR per SEC filings trails that expectation, and the beat rate over the last eight quarters is weak — the market expects more than the track record currently supports. The composite of 30/100 against the sector median captures that spread.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon | 6/9 | 22% | +12% |
Quarter-by-quarter classification · a retrospective read by the current logic · not a price forecast
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. The method did not see these quarters in real time; this is the current logic applied to past reports.
The market prices in earnings growth; analyst sentiment is steady; has not always beaten consensus.
Price against next year's expected earnings. The forward P/E already carries analyst optimism — read it alongside the “Versus consensus” line.
A forward P/E below the current one means the market expects earnings to grow; above it, to fall. The historical growth is realized figures from SEC filings, not a forecast.
The three-month change in the share of positive analyst ratings. This is sentiment, not an earnings-estimate revision, and not a call to act.
When Tesla reports on 2026-10-20, track whether revenue growth YoY recovers from its current 4.02% — well below the sector median — and whether FCF growth holds near its 13.5% pace. The F-Score profitability block sits at 3/4, so check for any deterioration in net income or operating cash flow signals.
Pull Tesla's most recent 10-K on SEC EDGAR and focus on the MD&A section around pricing strategy and margin pressure, given the EV/EBITDA of 20.3× — roughly 6.8× above the sector median. The leverage and liquidity sub-score of 1/3 also warrants a close read of debt maturity schedules and liquidity disclosures.
From the alphabetical Consumer Discretionary table in section 06, pick two or three companies yourself and line up a single metric — EV/EBITDA or current ratio are natural starting points given Tesla's readings of 20.3× and 1.11 respectively. No company in the table is ranked; the exercise is to place Tesla's figures in a broader sector context of your own choosing.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: +51%-42%-18%+74%
Over 4 years: 0.060.220.490.70
Over 4 years: +51%+19%+1%-3%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 4 of 8 recent quarters — a mixed record.
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| 11% |
| BABA | Alibaba | 3/9 | 10% | +8% | 5% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | 6/9 | — | +13% | 33% |
| F | Ford | 3/9 | -20% | +1% | -5% |
| GM | General Motors | 5/9 | 4% | -1% | 2% |
| HD | Home Depot | 3/9 | 146% | +3% | 13% |
| LOW | Lowe's | 6/9 | — | +3% | 12% |
| MAR | Marriott | 7/9 | — | +4% | 16% |
| MCD | McDonald's | 5/9 | — | +4% | 46% |
| NKE | Nike | 4/9 | 22% | +0% | — |
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive | 6/9 | — | +6% | 19% |
| ROST | Ross Stores | 6/9 | 37% | +8% | 12% |
| SBUX | Starbucks | 6/9 | — | +3% | 8% |
| TJX | TJX Companies | 7/9 | 59% | +7% | — |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | 5/9 | 5% | -3% | 5% |
| YUM | Yum! Brands | 4/9 | — | +9% | 31% |
A sample of 16 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
A simplified retrospective read: no analyst forecast (not available historically); the source is the annual report as of the date, so neighbouring quarters can rest on the same data. Quarters with the same classification in a row are merged into one row — each row is one change in the read, not a separate quarter. One ticker is an illustration of the classification logic, not statistics. How we calculate →
The last few quarters are recent context, not a fixed rate. Consensus for near quarters is set low, so companies clear it routinely; over long horizons the forecasts run the other way, too high.
A description of what the market and analysts expect. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. Analyst forecasts run systematically optimistic over long horizons — read them with that discount.