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United Parcel Service Inc.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Lower valuation, weak fundamentals
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2 of 5 met · composite in line with peers
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Mixed signals
2 signals unavailable
Profitability
3/4
Debt & liquidity
1/3
Efficiency
0/2
Cheap on price, thin on fundamentals — that is the tension running through UPS right now. The P/E of 19.5× sits -34% below the sector median 29.7×, and Debt/EBITDA of 2.2× runs just below the sector median 2.3×, so the balance sheet is not the source of the discount. Operating margin at 8.9% trails the sector median 16.5% by -46%, and FCF grew only -12.2% year over year against a sector median of 1.0% — the efficiency row of the F-Score of 4/9 scores zero, which fits. Consensus and the realized three-year EPS CAGR of {{value:eps_cagr_3y}} are broadly aligned, a less common outcome, yet the forward PEG reads stretched, meaning the market is pricing in growth that the SEC filing record has not yet delivered at scale. The composite of 58/100 against the sector median reflects a business trading at a discount that the underlying numbers largely justify rather than one the market has mispriced.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | Boeing | 6/9 | 289% | +34% |
Quarter-by-quarter classification · a retrospective read by the current logic · not a price forecast
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. The method did not see these quarters in real time; this is the current logic applied to past reports.
When UPS reports on October 27, 2026, track whether operating margin recovers toward the sector median of 16.5% and whether FCF growth turns meaningfully positive from its current 0.97% year-over-year figure. The F-Score profitability block (3/4) held up, but efficiency signals (0/2) did not — check both revenue trend and asset turnover for any directional shift.
Pull the most recent 10-K on SEC EDGAR and focus on management's explanation for the operating margin gap — at 16.5% versus the sector median, the compression is material. The leverage section is worth cross-checking too: Debt/EBITDA of 2.29× sits just 5% below the median, but the liquidity sub-score of 1/3 warrants scrutiny of covenant terms and refinancing timelines.
From the alphabetical same-sector table in section 06, pick two or three companies yourself and line up one metric — operating margin or FCF growth are the most instructive given UPS's weak signals in both. No entry in that table is ranked; the exercise is to place UPS's 16.5% operating margin and near-zero FCF growth in context against whichever peers you find relevant to your own thesis.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: -14%-46%+22%-23%
Over 4 years: 1.061.841.832.17
Over 4 years: +3%-9%+0%-3%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 7 of 8 recent quarters — the company clears estimates regularly (consensus is often set conservatively).
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| 5% |
| CAT | Caterpillar | 6/9 | 44% | +4% | 16% |
| CSX | CSX | 4/9 | 23% | -3% | 32% |
| DE | Deere | 5/9 | 21% | -12% | — |
| EMR | Emerson Electric | 7/9 | 11% | +3% | — |
| ETN | Eaton | 6/9 | 22% | +10% | — |
| GD | General Dynamics | 8/9 | 18% | +10% | 10% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 5/9 | 46% | +18% | — |
| HON | Honeywell | 6/9 | 29% | +8% | 22% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | 6/9 | 94% | +1% | 26% |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 6/9 | 77% | +6% | 10% |
| MMM | 3M | 5/9 | 76% | +2% | 19% |
| RTX | RTX | 7/9 | 11% | +10% | 10% |
| UNP | Union Pacific | 7/9 | 40% | +1% | 40% |
| UPS | United Parcel Service Inc. | 4/9 | 34% | -3% | 9% |
A sample of 15 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
A simplified retrospective read: no analyst forecast (not available historically); the source is the annual report as of the date, so neighbouring quarters can rest on the same data. Quarters with the same classification in a row are merged into one row — each row is one change in the read, not a separate quarter. One ticker is an illustration of the classification logic, not statistics. How we calculate →