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Simon Property Group Inc.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Signals align: quality at a discount to the sector
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4 of 5 met · composite above the peer average
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Mixed signals
3 signals unavailable
Profitability
3/4
Debt & liquidity
1/3
Efficiency
0/2
Free cash flow growth runs at 5.2%, well above the sector median, while ROE of 131.6% sits far ahead of peers. The P/E of 15.5× trades -58% below the sector median 37.2×, marking valuation as undemanding for a real estate operator with strong profitability. Yet the balance sheet carries structural strain: Debt/EBITDA stands at 6.2×, +48% above the median 4.2×. The F-Score of 4/9 reflects this tension — profitability and leverage both flag concerns, while efficiency metrics show no improvement. ROIC lags the sector by -16%, a sign that the capital base is not deploying as effectively as the headline returns suggest. Consensus models earnings growth aligned with the three-year realized CAGR from SEC filings, so near-term expectations rest on solid ground. The discount to peers reflects real financial risk, not a market mispricing.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMT | American Tower | 6/9 | 75% |
The market prices in an earnings decline; analyst sentiment is weakening; has not always beaten consensus.
Price against next year's expected earnings. The forward P/E already carries analyst optimism — read it alongside the “Versus consensus” line.
A forward P/E below the current one means the market expects earnings to grow; above it, to fall. The historical growth is realized figures from SEC filings, not a forecast.
The three-month change in the share of positive analyst ratings. This is sentiment, not an earnings-estimate revision, and not a call to act.
When SPG reports on 2026-11-02, track revenue year over year and whether FCF growth holds above the sector median of 2.25%. Also check if the Debt/EBITDA ratio, currently 4.17x and 48% above the median, shows any movement toward sector norms.
On SEC EDGAR, open SPG's latest 10-K and focus on the Leverage and Liquidity section — the F-Score flags only 1 out of 3 points there. Cross-reference management's commentary on debt structure against the 4.17x Debt/EBITDA figure to assess how they plan to address it.
From the same-sector table in section 06, pick two or three companies yourself and line up one metric — Debt/EBITDA or ROIC at 9.05x are natural starting points given SPG's mixed signals. No company in that alphabetical list is ranked, so the comparison is yours to draw.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: +0%+1%-3%+5%
Over 4 years: 6.556.405.576.18
Over 4 years: +3%+7%+5%+7%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Missed consensus in 6 of 8 recent quarters — consensus runs systematically optimistic for this company.
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| +5% |
| 46% |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate | 4/9 | -9% | -3% | — |
| AVB | AvalonBay | 4/9 | 9% | +4% | 66% |
| CCI | Crown Castle | 6/9 | 17% | -4% | 49% |
| DLR | Digital Realty | 6/9 | 6% | +10% | 11% |
| EQIX | Equinix | 6/9 | 10% | +5% | 20% |
| EQR | Equity Residential | 5/9 | 9% | +5% | 50% |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust | 6/9 | 13% | +6% | 48% |
| MAA | Mid-America Apartment | 4/9 | 8% | +1% | — |
| O | Realty Income | 6/9 | 3% | +9% | — |
| PLD | Prologis | 4/9 | 6% | +7% | 50% |
| PSA | Public Storage | 5/9 | 19% | +3% | — |
| SPG | Simon Property Group Inc. | 4/9 | 132% | +7% | 50% |
| VTR | Ventas | 6/9 | 2% | +18% | — |
| WELL | Welltower | 6/9 | 3% | +36% | — |
A sample of 15 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
The last few quarters are recent context, not a fixed rate. Consensus for near quarters is set low, so companies clear it routinely; over long horizons the forecasts run the other way, too high.
A description of what the market and analysts expect. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. Analyst forecasts run systematically optimistic over long horizons — read them with that discount.