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ConocoPhillips
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Signals scattered
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2 of 5 met · composite in line with peers
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Mixed signals
Profitability
3/4
Debt & liquidity
1/3
Efficiency
1/2
Debt tells the clearest story here: Debt/EBITDA at 1.1× sits -46% below the sector median 2.1×, a balance-sheet position that stands well above the sector in health. Revenue growth year over year came in at 7.7%, outpacing the sector median -1.9% by +496% — though that comparison is shaped by a low sector base rather than a surge in underlying demand. Valuation is less comfortable: the P/E of 15.6× exceeds the sector median 12.0× by +30%, and EV/EBITDA of 8.4× runs +40% above the median 6.0×, so the stock prices in more than the sector average despite near-median profitability. The F-Score of 5/9 reflects mixed signals across the three pillars, and the composite of 54/100 lands near the middle of the sector. Consensus and the realized three-year EPS CAGR are broadly aligned, and the beat rate over eight quarters has been strong — the market's growth assumptions appear grounded in the actual track record.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | ConocoPhillips | 5/9 | 12% | +8% |
The market prices in earnings growth; analyst sentiment is steady; has mostly beaten consensus.
Price against next year's expected earnings. The forward P/E already carries analyst optimism — read it alongside the “Versus consensus” line.
A forward P/E below the current one means the market expects earnings to grow; above it, to fall. The historical growth is realized figures from SEC filings, not a forecast.
The three-month change in the share of positive analyst ratings. This is sentiment, not an earnings-estimate revision, and not a call to act.
Revenue and margins in the next quarterly 10-Q will show whether the profitability signals in the F-Score hold. Re-run the COP analysis once it is published.
The full COP annual report on SEC EDGAR has the risk factors, the management discussion (MD&A), and the disclosures that numbers alone do not capture.
The same-sector table, where available, is an alphabetical sample with no ranking. Pick 2-3 companies yourself and line up P/E, margin, and F-Score: a single number only means something in its industry context.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: +56%———
Over 4 years: 0.570.891.161.13
Over 4 years: +71%-28%-2%+8%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 7 of 8 recent quarters — the company clears estimates regularly (consensus is often set conservatively).
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| — |
| CVX | Chevron | 6/9 | 7% | -7% | — |
| DVN | Devon Energy | 6/9 | 18% | +8% | — |
| EOG | EOG Resources | 4/9 | 17% | -4% | 28% |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | 4/9 | 4% | +36% | 8% |
| HAL | Halliburton | 4/9 | 12% | -3% | 10% |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan | 7/9 | 10% | +12% | 28% |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum | 7/9 | 23% | -4% | 6% |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | 4/9 | 7% | -2% | — |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 7/9 | 16% | -8% | — |
| SLB | Schlumberger | 4/9 | 14% | -2% | — |
| VLO | Valero Energy | 6/9 | 10% | -6% | 3% |
| WMB | Williams Companies | 7/9 | 21% | +14% | 35% |
A sample of 13 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
The last few quarters are recent context, not a fixed rate. Consensus for near quarters is set low, so companies clear it routinely; over long horizons the forecasts run the other way, too high.
A description of what the market and analysts expect. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. Analyst forecasts run systematically optimistic over long horizons — read them with that discount.