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Target Corporation
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
Weak signals across every dimension
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1 of 5 met · composite in line with peers
Business quality, valuation against the sector, and position in the 52-week range — whether they line up or not.
Stable quality
Profitability
3/4
Debt & liquidity
2/3
Efficiency
1/2
Revenue growth has stalled at -1.7%, trailing the sector median 2.3% by -174%, while free cash flow growth sits at -32.3%, far below the sector pace. The balance sheet remains solid — Debt/EBITDA stands at 1.7×, well below the median 2.4×, and the current ratio 0.94 sits above the sector median 0.83. Valuation reflects the slowdown: the P/E of 20.1× and EV/EBITDA of 10.1× both run below the sector median, pricing in modest expectations. The F-Score of 6/9 signals stable but unremarkable operations — profitability is adequate yet efficiency gains are sparse. Consensus models a recovery in earnings growth, yet the realized three-year EPS CAGR from SEC filings has lagged that forecast, and the forward PEG reads stretched. The last quarter beat estimates by 17%, but a single beat does not offset the structural weakness in top-line momentum and cash generation.
| Ticker | Name | F-Score | ROE | Revenue YoY | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Colgate-Palmolive | 5/9 | 1 603% |
Quarter-by-quarter classification · a retrospective read by the current logic · not a price forecast
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. The method did not see these quarters in real time; this is the current logic applied to past reports.
The market prices in earnings growth; analyst sentiment is steady; has mostly beaten consensus.
Price against next year's expected earnings. The forward P/E already carries analyst optimism — read it alongside the “Versus consensus” line.
A forward P/E below the current one means the market expects earnings to grow; above it, to fall. The historical growth is realized figures from SEC filings, not a forecast.
The three-month change in the share of positive analyst ratings. This is sentiment, not an earnings-estimate revision, and not a call to act.
When Target reports on August 19, focus on whether revenue growth year over year moves above its current 2.25% — well below the Consumer Staples sector median. Also check whether FCF growth, deeply negative on a YoY basis, shows any recovery, and whether the F-Score profitability pillar holds its 3/4 reading.
In Target's most recent 10-K on SEC EDGAR, read the Management's Discussion section for commentary on gross margin pressure and inventory management, two drivers behind the weak efficiency signal (1/2). The risk factors section will clarify how discretionary spending shifts could affect the 2.41× Debt/EBITDA figure over time.
From the alphabetical Consumer Staples table in section 06, pick two or three companies yourself and line up one metric — EV/EBITDA, Debt/EBITDA, or current ratio. Target's EV/EBITDA of 14.0× sits 28% below the sector median, which gives a concrete reference point for that comparison.
Steps you can check yourself, based on the figures in this brief.
Piotroski F-Score: nine binary tests of financial strength from the annual report. A ✓ marks a test passed, a dot (·) a test failed.
Over 4 years: -130%+353%+17%-37%
Over 4 years: 2.161.661.631.75
Over 4 years: +3%-2%-1%-2%
The context on the right shows how each figure compares with the sector median. The trend below tracks the change over recent fiscal years.
Beat consensus in 6 of 8 recent quarters — the company clears estimates regularly (consensus is often set conservatively).
Last quarter's EPS against consensus, plus the estimated date of the next report.
| +1% |
| 16% |
| COST | Costco | 7/9 | 31% | +8% | 4% |
| GIS | General Mills | 5/9 | -1% | -5% | 5% |
| HSY | Hershey | 4/9 | 19% | +4% | 12% |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark | 4/9 | 173% | -2% | 14% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | 6/9 | 46% | +2% | 29% |
| KR | Kroger | 6/9 | 14% | +0% | 1% |
| MDLZ | Mondelez | 6/9 | 9% | +6% | 9% |
| MO | Altria | 6/9 | — | -3% | 43% |
| PEP | PepsiCo | 5/9 | 43% | +2% | 12% |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | 6/9 | 30% | +3% | 23% |
| PM | Philip Morris | 7/9 | — | +7% | 37% |
| SYY | Sysco | 6/9 | 99% | +3% | 4% |
| TGT | Target Corporation | 6/9 | 24% | -2% | 5% |
| WMT | Walmart | 7/9 | 23% | +5% | 4% |
A sample of 15 companies in the sector including the target, alphabetical, unranked. Data from the latest SEC annual reports.
Rule-based classification of fundamentals against the sector. Not a price forecast and not investment advice.
A simplified retrospective read: no analyst forecast (not available historically); the source is the annual report as of the date, so neighbouring quarters can rest on the same data. Quarters with the same classification in a row are merged into one row — each row is one change in the read, not a separate quarter. One ticker is an illustration of the classification logic, not statistics. How we calculate →
The last few quarters are recent context, not a fixed rate. Consensus for near quarters is set low, so companies clear it routinely; over long horizons the forecasts run the other way, too high.
A description of what the market and analysts expect. Not a price forecast and not investment advice. Analyst forecasts run systematically optimistic over long horizons — read them with that discount.